MIB — The Week in Markets
🗓 Jul 04 – Jul 11 · 8 trading days
THE WEEK'S STORY
The week began neutral and ended risk-on. Fewer and fewer stocks kept the market up — from 57% rising down to 48% — so the finish was thinner than the start. The story that mattered most: SMH multi-day outflows amid semiconductor sector rout.
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE
- Mood: Neutral → Risk-on → Neutral → Risk-on
- Fear gauge (VIX): 16.1 → 15.0 (-1.1)
- Stocks rising each day: 57% → 54% → 50% → 43% → 22% → 26% → 46% → 48%
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
- SMH multi-day outflows amid semiconductor sector rout — -large outflows (multi-day) (Sat Jul 04)
- QQQ net outflows as Nasdaq underperforms on chip-led tech rout — -net outflows (holiday week) (Sat Jul 04)
- SMH / SOX Semiconductor ETF large outflow on AI-valuation selloff — -4.5% session (outflow signal) (Wed Jul 08)
- SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) outflows on chip correction — -3%+ NAV decline, outflow pressure (Thu Jul 09)
- SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) large inflow on AI memory / SK Hynix IPO catalyst — +estimated significant inflow (Sat Jul 11)
WHERE MONEY MOVED
🟢 Winners: Energy, Semis, Utilities
🔴 Laggards: Big Tech, Financials, Gold/Metals
THE RISK TO WATCH
A hot June inflation reading (CPI, due Jul 14) could revive rate-hike fears and pull money out of the very tech names carrying the tape.
ON DECK NEXT WEEK
- Tue Jul 14 — JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q2 FY2026 Earnings (cons. EPS $5.44)
- Tue Jul 14 — Bank of America (BAC) Q2 FY2026 Earnings (cons. EPS $1.13)
- Tue Jul 14 — Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 FY2026 Earnings (cons. EPS $14.46)
- Tue Jul 14 — Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 FY2026 Earnings (cons. EPS $1.73)
- Tue Jul 14 — Citigroup (C) Q2 FY2026 Earnings (cons. EPS $2.76)
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
- EPS — earnings per share — a company's profit divided by its share count; the number Wall Street forecasts and compares against.
- cons. — 'consensus' — the average analyst forecast. Markets move on the RESULT vs this expectation, not the result alone.
- IPO — a company selling shares to the public for the first time — hot debuts signal risk appetite.
- risk-on — money comfortable buying risky assets like stocks and crypto; safe havens get sold.
- VIX — the market's 'fear gauge'. Higher = traders expect bigger swings; ~20 is the long-run average.
- CPI — the headline inflation reading (consumer price index) — moves rate expectations and therefore stocks and bonds.
- QQQ — the Nasdaq-100 — big tech / growth heavyweights (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft…).
- SMH — a basket of semiconductor (chip) stocks — the core of the AI trade.
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Educational market commentary for general circulation — not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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